Bonds Analysis & Opinion

Interest rates remain in the spotlight, with investors watching every economic data release and wondering when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates.Well, one way to gauge this environment is to...

The future’s still uncertain, of course, and so all forecasts should be viewed cautiously. For perspective, let’s start with the one thing we know is true: We’re closer to the peak...

Our view of the attractiveness of bonds can be honed into an elevator pitch. It essentially boils down to a straightforward question – Is this time different?Have the forty-year pre-pandemic...

Did you know that 2022 was the WORST year for US Treasuries in American history?The benchmark 10-year Treasury fell nearly 18%, and the United States 30-Year Treasury collapsed by over 39%. Many other...

The 10-year Treasury yield looks elevated relative to CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value modeling. But after yesterday’s news that US consumer inflation fell more than expected in June, the...

The Fed minutes showed that policymakers were divided and that the Hawks will still want to deliver more tightening. Fed Officials are concerned a tight labor market will make inflation tight...

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield at a relatively wide spread over its “fair value,” based on the average estimate of three models assembled by...

Buyers pushed up prices for most of the major asset classes last week. US bonds were the downside outliers, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (June 9).Government fixed-income markets...

Thinking about the Treasury yield curve the night before the May ’23 nonfarm payroll report, eventually, the Treasury yield curve has to return to a positive slope, meaning that short-maturity...

I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire performance in 2022, where bonds had...

Last year’s famine has turned to feast in the bond market in 2023 as the riskiest slice of fixed income tops year-to-date results through yesterday’s close (May 17), based on a set of...

We have been vocal that long-term Treasury bonds are an excellent investment at current yield levels. However, timing the purchase of bonds will prove difficult as numerous headwinds may temporarily...

The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the...

As the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation by raising interest rates, the market is growing uncertain about future rate hikes.Today, we share a chart comparing the 10 Year Treasury...